Categoría: English / 3 de agosto de 2015
Elypsis Monthly Report - Much Ado About Nothing: Argentina in the electoral limbo
The dollar in campaign
Increasing fiscal deficit
Global risk factors: dollar and commodities
Local risk factor: soy stocks and yields

Categoría: English / 27 de julio de 2015
Weekly Monytor Nº 145: Griesa supports houldout’s claim to extend the pari passu to debt issued outside the swaps
Mixed readings of May’s fiscal balance. Slight improvement in income and expenditure, but the 12-month cumulative deficit still stands at alarmingly high levels. The performance of income was positive and, although expenditure continues to be decoupled, dominated by the electoral dynamics, the gap shrinks in May.

Categoría: English / 20 de julio de 2015
Weekly Monytor Nº 144: Griesa supports houldout’s claim to extend the pari passu to debt issued outside the swaps
Judge Griesa supports houldout’s claim, who requested him to extend the pari passu ruling to debt securities issued outside the 2005 and 2010 swaps. After the rises registered last month, sovereign bonds under local law sink on the latest news from NY.

Categoría: English / 13 de julio de 2015
Weekly Monytor Nº 143: We adjusted upward our growth forecast for 2015 to 1%
With an already growing economy, we modify our forecast of average growth for 2015 to 1%.
In June, the expansion of the monetary base and private M3 accelerates slightly, while the private M2 decelerates.

Categoría: English / 6 de julio de 2015
Weekly Monytor Nº 142: With expenditure increasing 45% the fiscal result continues to worsen
The international context determined the fall of local ADRs in the past week.
In April, the primary deficit registers a new record.
According to official data, the economy grew 1.1% YoY in the first quarter.

Categoría: English / 29 de junio de 2015
Weekly Monytor Nº 141: We maintain our FX premium forecast of 20% by year-end
Grexit: the international scene troubled by the possibility of a default and Greek exit of euro area.
Premiums against the official exchange rate increase.
In May, foreign trade extends its slump.
Inflation expectations return to 30% in June while consumer confidence remains stable.

Categoría: English / 18 de junio de 2015
Elypsis Monthly Report - Continuism, gradualism, shock: The 2016 scenarios in figures
How do we arrive to December 10th?
2016 Scenarios: Continuity, gradualism, shock
Gradualism vs. shock: Main differences
Continuism

Categoría: English / 8 de junio de 2015
Weekly Monytor Nº 140: The growth rate of the monetary base and monetary aggregates accelerates
The implicit depreciation rate of short-term futures contracts decreased again, but now coupled with a decrease in longer-term contracts.
Griesa extended the pari passu judgment to "me too" creditors.
In May tax revenue grows strongly.
Wages fell by 0.8% YoY in April, but still maintain their positive trend.
In Chicago, corn and soybean prices increased.

Categoría: English / 1 de junio de 2015
Weekly Monytor Nº 139: Griesa refrains from taking a decision over “me too” creditors
“Me too” creditors demanded Griesa to be reached by the pari passu ruling.
March closed with a record primary fiscal deficit.
The BCRA added pesos to the market in its weekly auction, leaving room for the placement of Treasury Bonacs for ARS 5.0bn.
Our Economic Activity Coincident Index (ICAE) showed a 0.7% annual increase in April.

Categoría: English / 22 de mayo de 2015
Weekly Monytor Nº 138: Lower devaluation expectations boost peso deposits
Short-term dollar futures contracts continue to decrease, improving the arbitrage with peso rates. This, along with the exchange rate stability, drives the growth of deposits in pesos.

Categoría: English / 18 de mayo de 2015
Weekly Monytor Nº 137: Q1:2015 MULC: reserves are sustained by public sector debt issuance
The USD 0.3bn increase in reserves in Q1:2015 against Q4:2014 is exclusively explained by capital account inflows, while the current account was again negative.
Local dollar futures decrease in the short-end of the curve while the long-end prices a discrete devaluation.
According to the UIA, industry contracted 1.0% in March.

Categoría: English / 11 de mayo de 2015
Weekly Monytor Nº 136: The Central Bank advances its strategy of homeopathic rate cuts
In its last Lebacs/Nobas auction, the BCRA cut rates again and didn’t offer the long-end of the curve. The Treasury sold ARS 5.3bn in BONACs. The monthly monetary base expansion rate unchanged. Exchange rate premiums remained stable last week, although with a downward trend. Neither the USD purchases for savings purposes nor the credit card arbitrage decrease.

Categoría: English / 4 de mayo de 2015
Elypsis Monthly Report - 2015, from trough to peak: Backstage of the end-of-cycle picture
Fiscal Outlook: first bimester: highest deficit since 2002
Positive: expenditure decelerates, the energy trade balance improves
2015 deficit: slight deterioration to 4.6%
Monetary Outlook: End-of-cycle Zeitgeist: exchange rate overvaluation and premiums convergence
Activity: Sings of a turning point in February/March
Markets:Credit under pressure, insensitive to the last sovereign issuance

Categoría: English / 27 de abril de 2015
Weekly Monytor Nº 135: After the issuance of the Bonar 24, gross reserves reach their highest record in 14 months
The inflow of sovereign financial dollars gives momentum for new issues. YPF issues new bond for USD1.5bn after receiving bids for USD5bn. Griesa grants discovery on Bonar 24 after a holdouts' request. Debt issues are a positive, which partially offset the losses on Argentine bonds in recent weeks. PBA is expected to tap the markets to cope with debt maturities due next October.

Loans to private sector continue to show greater dynamism. After the issuance of the Bonar 24, gross reserves reach their highest record in 14 months.

Categoría: English / 13 de abril de 2015
Weekly Monytor Nº 133: In March, tax revenue grew for second month in a row
In March, tax revenue grows for the second consecutive month thanks to social security and activity. January primary result was the worst first month of the year since 2002.

Categoría: English / 20 de marzo de 2015
Weekly Monytor Nº 132: Citibank’s dilemma between U.S. and Argentine law
Citibank’s dilemma. The government rejects “me too” claims, but how much is the value of the claims? Sovereign assets increase.

Categoría: English / 16 de marzo de 2015
Weekly Monytor Nº 131: Return of the superdollar
Return of the super dollar. Euro hits 12-year low. The Brazilian Real continues to fall. The REER at January 2002 levels.

Categoría: English / 9 de marzo de 2015
Weekly Monytor Nº 130: Tax revenue hints a slight recovery
February tax revenue increased above inflation. Signs of recovery in the labor market and activity; foreign trade continues to fall back.
The Central Bank continues showing a net selling stance in the FX market. The monetary base increases in real terms after 18 months. Private credit and deposits advance, with liquidity decreasing.
Auto production stretches its negative trend. Retail consumption increases again. Steel production decreases.

Categoría: English / 2 de marzo de 2015
Elypsis Monthly Report - Argentina 2016: The rebound year
2016: The rebound year. 4% growth, higher peso rates and moderate fiscal improvement. Declining inflation with higher real wages. Growing current account deficit (3%-4% of GDP) financed by capital inflows with no capital controls and no exchange rate premiums by year end.

Categoría: English / 13 de febrero de 2015
Weekly Monytor Nº 128: Expectations for new decisions in NY after London ruling
As anticipated, English justice ruled in favor of euro bondholders that claim to unlock payments retained by the BoNY. The news intensifies the sovereign bond rally and strengthens our view that the financial risk associated with the stock of reserves has virtually disappeared.
London ruling adds to FX entry through bilateral and multilateral loans, reinforcing a spread compression process that we expect to continue throughout the year, fueling expectations of further emissions.
BCRA changes conditions for USD LEBACs seeking to benefit Banks and investors. Banks which are able to attract new dollar term deposits will be “rewarded”. In the secondary market, Lebacs anticipate future descreases in interest rates.
Construction sector and real estate market remain stagnant. Tourism ends a year of contraction.

Categoría: English / 10 de febrero de 2015
Weekly Monytor Nº 127: The entry of financial dollars speeds up the convergence of spreads
Expectations for the entry of financial dollars speeds up convergence of spreads and anticipates future access to capital markets. Still lagging exchange markets are to show in the near future the same trend as fears about the reserves dissipate.

Categoría: English / 2 de febrero de 2015
Elypsis Monthly Report - It's not politics: Currency overvaluation, fiscal unbalance, Chinese reserves
Monetary and exchange rate outlook
Activity
Markets

Categoría: English / 26 de enero de 2015
Weekly Monytor Nº 126: Financial repression deepens. Sovereign bonds remain stable
Argentina: Sovereign yield curve improves. Peso bonds still more attractive. The government hardens financial repression. Foreign trade shrinks again. Consumer confidence increased 12.9% MoM in January (this figure does not incorporate the Nisman episode). Inflation expectations remain at 30% in January. Still no signs of recovery.

Categoría: English / 19 de enero de 2015
Weekly Monytor Nº 125: The Central Bank tests the market with a slight drop in rates
Last Tuesday, in its weekly note and bill tender, the Central Bank made the most important modification in rates since late August last year, slightly reducing rates of the longer stretch of the curve. We believe it is a test by the Central Bank to assess the market’s reaction to a possible rate cut in the future. A possible rate cut in shorter stretches will diminish regulated credits rate, now at its maximum allowed level.

Categoría: English / 13 de enero de 2015
Weekly Monytor Nº 124: The beginning of negotiations could be delayed until all "me toos" are identified
The start of negotiations might be delayed until March, estimated date by which all the "me toos" would be identified. We maintain our scenario of negotiation with a low probability of agreement. However, with an expired RUFO, the government's offer raises. At current values, the potential offer by the Argentine government approaches the 2005 swap whose actual value is higher than that of the 2010 swap.

Categoría: English / 23 de diciembre de 2014
Elypsis Monthly Report - The bridge to January: Overvalued exchange rate and foreign debt
International
Monetary and exchange rate outlook
Activity and fiscal outlook
Markets

Categoría: English / 15 de diciembre de 2014
Weekly Monytor Nº 123: As expected the buyback/swap/issue offer was unsuccessful
The buyback/swap/issue offer was unsuccessful: the repurchase amounted to USD 185m, USD 377m was exchanged, and only USD 285m of Bonar 24 was issued. Although the buyback/swap/issue offer showed a poor result, this was expected and the international context affected it adversely.

Categoría: English / 9 de diciembre de 2014
Weekly Monytor Nº 122: In December depreciation rate picks up its pace
Exchange Rate Outlook
Activity
Fiscal
Markets

Categoría: English / 3 de noviembre de 2014
Elypsis Monthly Report - Probable negotiation, uncertain outcome
Terms of trade: Soy and oil
Argentina: The cost of bad policy is real
Exchange rate and monetary policy: More of the same

Categoría: English / 27 de octubre de 2014
Weekly Monytor Nº 119: "Fiscal and trade balance: The disequilibrium increases"
August fiscal balance was worse than expected.
In September foreign trade contracted again, with exports falling 12.1% YoY and, like in August and July, none of the main categories experienced positive growth compared to the same month of last year.
Government frees wheat and corn exports.
August official figures confirm the greatest contraction since July 2009.
We raise the likelihood of a negotiation with holdouts in 2015, after the RUFO clause expires.

Categoría: English / 20 de octubre de 2014
Weekly Monytor Nº 118: With BCRA transfers reaching their legal limit, the Treasury will issue a dollar-linked bond
The Treasury announced a dollar-linked bond issuance of up to USD 1.0bn. The Central Bank transferred USD 3.5bn to the Treasury despite not having to meet obligations for that amount in the short term. This takes place at a time when all the legal mechanisms to finance the Treasury (utilities and transitory overdrafts) reached their limit for this year.
In recent days, the price of oil reached its lowest level in nearly four years. In the short run this is good news for Argentina, taking into account the nature of the country as a net importer. Thus, the recent drop in oil prices could save the country up to USD 1.2bn annually.
Inflation expectations remained at their all-time highest level of 35% in October. National demand of energy fell 3.5% YoY in September, closing a contractionary third quarter. Gas delivered to industry increased 6.7% YoY in August while industrial production falls 6.0% YoY in the same month.
We raise the likelihood of a negotiation with holdouts as from next January. The deteriorating economic situation makes a deal with the holdouts more likely.

Categoría: English / 14 de octubre de 2014
Weekly Monytor Nº 117: While testing the appetite for external financing, the government funds itself with the pesos that are released from the recession

Categoría: English / 6 de octubre de 2014
Weekly Monytor Nº 116: The BCRA advances with new regulations over the banking system
After Fábrega’s resignation and the arrival of Vanoli to the presidency of the BCRA, the monetary authority raised repo rates to all-time highs and established interest rate floors for retail deposits.
September tax revenue growth was below the inflation level, and only supported by Income tax.
Economic activity data continues to be worse than expected.
Judge Griesa declared Argentina in civil contempt and new doubts arise about the series of bonds reached by his ruling.

Categoría: English / 2 de octubre de 2014
Elypsis Monthly Report - These are my principles
Monetary Policy: The Central Bank in its labyrinth
Vise Effect: Commercial USD scarcity and financial autarchy
The real economy as an adjustment variable

Categoría: English / 22 de septiembre de 2014
Weekly Monytor Nº 115: By July 2014, the financial deficit is already close to the 2013 level
July fiscal accounts continue to show the negative trend of the Treasury’s balance.
The effect of the regulation over foreign currency denominated assets held by banks vanishes.
The NY Court of Appeals denied the appeal by Citibank.

Categoría: English / 15 de septiembre de 2014
Weekly Monytor Nº 114: The exchange rate competitiveness is back to pre-devaluation levels
The real effective exchange rate finally lost all of the exchange rate competitiveness that the January devaluation had provided.
New upward revisions in production estimates of the US campaign. Reacting to the news, agricultural commodities’ prices experience a new decrease.

Categoría: English / 8 de septiembre de 2014
Weekly Monytor Nº 113: In 2014 BCRA transfers to the treasury will almost double those from last year
The Central Bank obliged banks to sell positions in FX. This regulation will not have the effectiveness of the previous one. The increase in exchange rate premiums motivates credit card consumptions abroad. We forecast an expansion of the monetary base of ARS 86bn in what’s left of the year, driven by the financial assistance to the Treasury. This significant expansion will exert pressure over the different exchange rates.

Categoría: English / 1 de septiembre de 2014
Elypsis Monthly Report - War Economy
Risk1: Griesa and the scope of the default
Risk2: Trade dollars and the end of the financial do without
Risk3: The battle for the throne in the monetary kingdom
Activity: Collateral Damage
Strategy: The Truce

Categoría: English / 19 de agosto de 2014
Weekly Monytor Nº 111: June data confirms that the fiscal deterioration continues
June fiscal data shows a significant deterioration. BCRA cuts rates in a period of pressure over the exchange rate. Real wages and industrial production fall, while electric energy demand and gas delivered to industry increase. Due to Citibank's request of appeal to the Court of N.Y., the impediment to transfer payments would only apply to bonds under U.S. law.

Categoría: English / 11 de agosto de 2014
Weekly Monytor Nº 110: July data confirms that the recession continues
Economic activity continues in negative territory. BCRA's interest rate regulations kicks in and banks reduce lending rates. Deposit rates and total credit react with downward movements, also induced by Central Bank's sterilization of pesos that crowds-out credit to the private sector.

Categoría: English / 30 de julio de 2014
Elypsis Monthly Report - RUFO is the new EMBI: Glimpsing the default
Dollar balance: Soy again
Peso balance: The fiscal vacuum
Stagflation: No surprises
Markets: Numerous versions

Categoría: English / 21 de julio de 2014
Weekly Monytor Nº 108: With no news, sovereign credit moves to the beat of rumors
Sovereign credit moves to the beat of rumors, spreading to all local assets. In the last two months the PBA and CABA credit follow the ups and downs of sovereign risk. Agreement with China to secure reserves.